We beat the consensus.
Here’s the receipt.
Graded head-to-head against the Sleeper and ESPN expert consensus on three seasons of matched player-weeks — identical scoring, identical rows, sealed holdouts. We beat both overall, and the misses stay published.
Edge High
MAE gap, 2022–2024, weeks 3–18, half-PPR, both sides scored under identical rules. No Yahoo receipt yet — not because they won, but because Yahoo doesn’t publish historical projections, so a backtest against them is impossible for anyone to run. We’re logging their live 2026 numbers every week; that head-to-head gets published by midseason.
They watch film.
We compute.
This isn’t a pundit picking favorites — it’s a data-engineering pipeline. A decade of play-by-play distilled into 337-column feature vectors: EPA, CPOE, target shares, snap rates, line movement. Models are walk-forward cross-validated and scored on sealed holdout seasons they never trained on — the same discipline that catches overfit quants, applied to football. Experts have opinions. We have out-of-sample error rates.
We model the connections
between players.
121 stability-gated correlations mined from a decade of games — every edge held its sign across a 2016–22 training window AND a 2023–25 holdout. Know whose big games arrive together.
7,559 candidate pairs in. 121 served. The rest didn’t survive the stability gate.
A co-pilot on the clock.
Live Sleeper draft sync, stack-aware recommendations, and a sleeper board built from vacated-opportunity graph signal — players the consensus doesn’t even rank.
Every matchup, rated 1–99.
A head-to-head field view for every game — live EA Madden OVR ratings for every starter (a stat-based rating fills in for players Madden hasn’t rated yet), with player-vs-player edges at every slot on the field.
Five sources.
One table. Ours graded.
Our model’s ranks next to Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Draft Sharks, FTN, and the 2025 accuracy podium (Sharps) — same players, same row, the gaps highlighted so you can see exactly where the consensus disagrees.
Meet GX-01.
Your always-on analyst — every projection, correlation, injury report and betting edge, one question away, on every page.
Our line vs their line.
Every game, graded.
An ensemble model with calibrated cover probabilities — edges flagged when we disagree with the market, closing-line value tracked all season.
High
Med
High
Synced to your league
in one click.
Connect Sleeper and every ranking, projection and alert re-scores to YOUR scoring settings — optimal lineups, drop candidates, and waiver targets for your exact roster.
Free this season. Premium tiers arrive later — early users keep the good stuff.